... does not actually exist, because there's always something else to consider.
You never absolutely know how that new job is going to fulfill you, how your customer ultimately made his decision or why communities form the way they do.
Sure, there are guidelines for all this: career advice, proper expectation setting, marketing rules of thumb and group psychology. Alas, none of them (at least the good ones) tell you that if A then B, guaranteed.
But that's the whole point, isn't it? For us to figure it out. If nothing is 100% safe, then we should be working our asses off to create the safest option there is. Even if it starts out as a risky venture for ourselves.